In a small way, Hajdúszoboszló illustrates the madness that awaits the whole country

"We have never invited anyone to live here with us, either as a guest worker or for any other reason." (Viktor Orbán, 2017, Kossuth Radio)

"No migrants should be allowed to enter Hungary." (Viktor Orbán, 2018, Annual Opening of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry)

In recent days, a sharp conflict has unfolded in Hajdúszoboszló, which on a local level, illustrates what will likely be one of the most divisive issues in Hungary in the next few years.

Locals are angry because many foreign guest workers are coming to the town due to the nearby factory constructions. They are angry and desperate about guest workers coming to Hungary, when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had insisted for years that they would not be allowed to come here because they would only bring trouble, violence and destruction.

The mayor of Hajdúszoboszló fears for the city's tourism, and – in a Facebook post that has since been deleted – asked local residents to "report any cases where they see or suspect guest workers staying."

“I will disclose the names of individuals who are hosting guest workers”

The Hungarian government has recently announced several giant investments in the Debrecen area: there's a BMW factory is under construction, and two Chinese companies, CATL and Eve Power, are building a giant battery factory in the eastern Hungarian city. The announcements usually stress that these will create thousands of new jobs, but they fail to mention who will work in these plants or who will build them. Yet, given the acute labour shortage in Hungary and the increasing number of guest workers coming to the country, it seems that a large proportion of these jobs will be performed by foreigners from outside the EU.

In recent months, a high number of workers from outside the EU have arrived in the Debrecen area. They have been accommodated in the surrounding villages, but after years of fear-mongering about foreigners, the local Hungarians are – to put it mildly – not happy about their arrival.

A few days ago, Gyula Czeglédi, the mayor of Hajdúszoboszló, a town near Debrecen, with a population of 24,000, mostly known for its spas, wrote on his Facebook page that he had consulted the local police chief and asked for increased attention from the police.

"For decades we have worked diligently to build and maintain our leading role in tourism. [...] I therefore firmly declare that we will not allow anyone to compromise the safety and reputation of our city.

We will do everything we can to prevent the construction of workers' hostels in our city. If it becomes necessary, I will disclose the names of individuals who are hosting foreign guest workers in Hajdúszoboszló," he wrote.

He also added that the municipality has taken several measures in recent months "to further restrict the possibility of setting up and operating a workers' hostel in our city beyond the priority holiday zone, extending it to almost the entire city". The mayor pointed out that, according to the local decree, a workers' hostel may only be set up in the city's industrial zone and only if the operator is a local entrepreneur from Hajdúszoboszló.

As he wrote, it is possible to carry out further inspections based on reports from the public, for example in rented premises, and "if necessary, to inform the competent authorities, the tax office, the disaster management and public health authorities". He said, "I myself have not worked for the flourishing of tourism in our city for nearly three decades to see it destroyed as a by-product of industrial development in Debrecen."

He called on residents "to report any cases where they have witnessed or suspect the harbouring of guest workers".

The accommodation providers as public enemy

The comments under the mayor's post reflected a relentless lynch mob mentality developing. Several locals requested that the police check out a well-known local nightclub. Another person wrote that the police had been there, but no guest workers had been found. Some complained about the arrival of "people of Turkish religion", others disagreed with the mayor's idea to build a workers' hostel in the industrial park. They suggested that no such hostel should be built anywhere in the city.

Plenty of comments were posted, but after a while, Gyula Czeglédi deleted the post. However, tempers continue to flare in the 18,000-member local Facebook group "I heard it in Szoboszló". Some have tried to calm the angry people by saying that so far there is no definite information on whether there has been any violence or illegalities on the part of the migrant workers, and that there is no point in panicking until information becomes available.

"Things should get sorted out before a bigger problem arises. It's not panic mongering, it's anticipation."

- another group member responded.

Someone linked the government's new guest worker law to the post, which allows a guest worker to stay in Hungary for a maximum of 2+1 years. “It doesn't help us much if they keep taking turns. They could be here for decades. These 2+1 years are only enough to avoid being conspicuous if they become permanently ill,” one person wrote. "2+1 years? Now that's what we need:) after 3 years they get a new ID card and the 2+1 years begin again:))))" - someone else wrote. There was one who added: "The Chinese, and the NegRs, ten of them come with one ID card, because white people can't tell them apart."

Some people blamed the ruling party and Fidesz voters for the situation:

• "They can do this as long as the people just keep their mouths shut! It's good for everyone! Where are the Fidesz voters!? They should tell us how good this will be for us..."
• "It was in the propaganda that the illegal migrants will rape the Hungarian women....and now they are settling 300,000 working men. Without a wife, children and family...I wonder if they will also give them bromide to stop them from trying to find a wife replacement? For 3 years?"
• "But that's not possible. Dr Orbán must not know about this. If he did, he wouldn't have allowed it."
• "They'll say Brussels sent them here anyways."
• "The government won't let Brussels settle migrants here because it doesn't tolerate competition. They have already brought the Bedouins here. Well over the quota."

But most of them didn't raise their voices against the real decision-makers, i.e. Fidesz government members for letting guest workers come here, but instead declared the accommodation providers the new public enemy.

"Since money is a big issue, especially in this country, many people don't care and will provide them accommodation", someone wrote. Several people agreed with the mayor and called for those providing accommodation to migrant workers to be held accountable. Although some were sceptical about whether this would be effective: "It will only result in illegal renting to blacks."

"We must launch the cleansing fire project!"

Over the past few days, we've scanned through hundreds of comments in local Facebook groups. To give you a sense of the desperation and lynch mob mood, we've collected some verbatim quotes:

• "Daily conflict is inevitable. Rape, aggressive behaviour, imposition of their culture, theft, robbery and even murder."
• "They will kill people without any problems. Unfortunately, I know them well."
• "And again there's messaging, writing, the law, f..ck it. Why don't we organize a meeting of the citizens of the city who bloody well don't like it?(...) Let's not start being afraid of a few bad, dirty stinking Bedouins in our own country, in our beloved city. Let them be afraid!!!!! We are at home!!!! Let's get off our asses for once!!!!!"
• "It will only be a problem when you take your slant-eyed grandchild to kindergarten!"
• "Children will be endangered, especially women. Although these people are used to goats. But goats are scarce here. So they'll go for the women."
• "They unscrupulously watch teenage girls and "walk" after them. Although as long as that's all that's going on no one's bothering with them...."
• "We need to get the purifying fire project going!"
• "Hajdúszoboszló will be the first to fall due to the impact of the new factories."
• "It is a disaster as it is. I'm getting more and more afraid to let my daughters go around on their own. Is this what we have to live with? To live in terror? After all, if everyone moves away, the new name of the town might as well be China Village."

The police have not received any reports

Someone wrote that "they are also human beings who are moving abroad in the hope of a more comfortable, safer life". The response to this was "I sincerely wish that a good number of them would get accommodation next to your house. You shouldn't have posted that, you will be lynched and you deserve it."

We wrote to the police in Hajdúszoboszló to find out how many offences have been committed in recent months that can be linked to guest workers.

"In response to your inquiry, I would like to inform you that the Hajdúszoboszló Police Department has not received any reports or taken any police action in connection with foreign guest workers this year."

- the Police Headquarters of Hajdú-Bihar County wrote to us. So far, there is no evidence that foreign guest workers have committed crimes in Hajdúszoboszló, yet the locals continue to suggest otherwise, virtually hyping each other into believing that Armageddon is upon them. In many cases, the only problem locals have with a guest worker is that they are "sitting on a bench, looking around".

Migrant or guest worker? Not here!

All of this, of course, follows strongly from the last eight years of government communication. Since around the 2015 migration crisis, the main messages of Fidesz have been:

• We will not be a country of immigrants.
• No one from Asia, Africa or who knows where else can set foot here.
• We don't care if they come here hoping for a better life, they should go elsewhere or stay at home.

We have heard this a million times from politicians of the governing party. "The opposition would allow migrants in" – elections in Hungary were won with such scaremongering.

For years, the prime minister has stressed that it's not only people from war zones that Hungary won't allow to come here, but also those who would come from a peaceful country, simply to work.

"We have never invited anyone to live here with us, either as a guest worker or for any other reason. So, we are not an immigrant country and Hungary doesn't want to become an immigrant country."

- Viktor Orbán said in 2017. The prime minister also spoke about the importance of preserving ethnic homogeneity in 2017, and in 2018, at an event organised by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, he also made a very clear statement: "No migrants should be allowed to enter Hungary." But we can also remember one of the messages of the 2015 poster campaign: "If you come to Hungary, you can't take the jobs of Hungarians!"

However, Orbán's attitude towards the issue has now changed, as the Hungarian labour market has become very strained due to the declining population and the need for workers in new factories under construction, making it almost impossible to find workers in Hungary.

It seems that not many have heard what Orbán said a few months ago

For some reason, it seems that the information that there has been a change in the government's economic policy has not reached many Hungarian voters. It is not known how many people have heard or read what Viktor Orbán said quite clearly at an event of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry this spring:

"the Hungarian economy will need half a million new workers within a year or two."

The Prime Minister, of course, immediately added that while there is a need for all these new workers, "this raises many questions". He said economic rationale was only one aspect, "because we have already seen the situation in some Western European countries where they are overburdened with guest workers". We need to be very careful about guest workers, he said.

According to the Prime Minister's ideas, it is primarily the internal reserves that need to be mobilised, but this doesn't mean public employees, because there are no reserves in that system. There may still be some in the eastern part of the country, and he is counting on Hungarians in neighbouring countries as well. The migration of Hungarians from abroad, however, raises new questions, because if many of those living there move here – and there has been a trend towards this for a very long time – then after a while Hungarians will disappear from the Hungarian-inhabited areas outside the country.

At this year's event of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Orbán also said that he believes Hungary cannot afford to import foreigners because guest workers from "certain population groups" are better workers than the Hungarian reserve here. He said that we cannot afford the luxury that is apparent in Western Europe, where "natives" are unwilling to do certain jobs.

In reality, however, we are seeing an increasing number of foreign guest workers being brought to Hungary by manufacturing companies and recruitment agencies. Last year alone, their numbers increased by 81,000. And in the coming years and decades, even more will come. There is no real unemployment on the domestic labour market, in fact, there has been a stifling shortage of labour in many sectors for years, and this is a serious obstacle to the country's economic development.

More and more foreign workers are coming to Hungary from more and more countries. There aren't enough welders, forklift drivers, lorry drivers, or even skilled workers for simple tasks. So Hungary gets Filipinos, Indonesians, Kazakhs, Indians, Kyrgyz, Mongolians.

Almost all experts agree that the 500,000 new workers that Viktor Orbán mentioned would be needed in the next few years can certainly not be only Hungarians. According to Ágota Scharle, director of the Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis, who spoke to G7, an optimistic estimate is that 200,000 Hungarians could be brought into the labour market within three years. Others say that at least 200-300,000 foreign guest workers will need to come to Hungary in the next few years to meet the labour needs fuelled by the many new investments.

It is questionable how 200-300 thousand foreigners can be brought into the domestic lynch mob atmosphere and the uncompromising xenophobia – even though they always arrive for existing jobs, so companies bring them in with a valid employment contract. They would not start looking for work upon arrival.

On top of this, with these 200-300 thousand new foreign guest workers, Hungary won't even come close to the similar indicators of neighbouring countries – not only of Western European countries, but not even those of post-socialist countries. The Czech Republic, with a labour market more or less the same size as Hungary's, has 700,000 guest workers, Austria has 1 million, and Poland, four times the size of Hungary, had around 2 million, mostly Ukrainian guest workers even before the war, and this number has since increased many times over.

Just a few weeks ago, Fidesz passed the guest worker law, which Orbán called "the strictest rule in Europe". According to this, only as many guest workers can enter Hungary as there are vacancies. Guest workers can come for two years, which can only be extended once.

Hungary is heading for a demographic disaster

Instead of growing or stagnating, the Hungarian population is declining at a rapid pace. In relative terms, there are less and less active workers generating pensions, while it would be good if the generated value could be constantly increased. It wouldn't even help if every Hungarian woman of child-bearing age were to magically become fertile and have at least three children at this moment, since this surplus would only appear on the labour market in 20-25 years' time.

The reality is that Hungary is facing a demographic disaster. In the last 40 years, our population has fallen by more than a million (from 10.7 million to 9.59 million) and, according to researchers at the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the decline will be even faster in the next 40 years as deaths outnumber births by an ever greater margin. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, there will be 7.5-8 million of us in 2070. This means that in a few decades, there could be more than one and a half million less Hungarians than today.