Why didn't Balázs Orbán's remarks about '56 lead to another clemency scandal?

Everything was in place for Balázs Orbán's controversial statement about '56 to develop into a second clemency scandal, since the two cases are similar in many respects. Both Katalin Novák's pardon decision and Balázs Orbán's statement called the essence of Fidesz’s policies into question. The presidential clemency granted to Endre K., who assisted the paedophile director of the Bicske children's home ran counter to Fidesz's family-friendly image, while the political director's statement undermined the image of Fidesz as representing the legacy of 1956. Speaking to the pro-government Mandiner, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's political director, drew a parallel between the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and the war in Ukraine, saying that “Based precisely on '56, we probably would not have done what President Zelensky did 2.5 years ago".

The clemency case led to the resignation of Katalin Novák and the departure from public life for Judit Varga, who had countersigned the presidential pardon while she was Minister of Justice. This was a serious sacrifice for Fidesz, as they had spent years building Novák up to make her president, while Judit Varga was set to become Fidesz's EP list leader in the June elections. Balázs Orbán's statements had no such consequences and he was allowed to stay in his post.

Even if the Prime Minister had at one point considered sacking Balázs Orbán, it is now clear that he will stick by his political director despite the scandal. In an interview with Kossuth Rádió, he put the matter to rest by saying that his political director spoke ambiguously, which was a mistake. In the 6 October show of government pundit Zsolt Bayer on Hír TV, Balázs Orbán called the whole affair a disinformation campaign, and later suggested that "the Soros network" had launched a concerted attack on him, even though he had previously apologized for his statement. Meanwhile, the Fidesz-friendly press has even published historically inaccurate opinions according to which Hungary was in fact lured into a trap by the treacherous West in 1956. All of these indicate that Viktor Orbán considers the matter closed and has forgiven his political director.

Balázs Orbán's mistake came at the worst possible time

This latest unforced error could not have come at a worse time for Fidesz, especially since the scandal of the star priest who had very close connections to leading politicians is still fresh in everyone's memory. The outcry that followed Balázs Orbán's statements was to be expected, with the political director receiving criticism even from within Fidesz circles.

Political analyst Gábor Török called the statement the biggest political mistake of the year, while Russia expert András Rácz wrote that "we now know what we only suspected: the government would not defend Hungary against a Russian attack". Péter Magyar and several opposition parties have called on Balázs Orbán to resign, and even a hero of '56 took exception to his statements. Balázs Orbán's remarks were picked up by the international press, with most major foreign papers reporting on the case and the reactions to it.

His reasoning about the analogy between 1956 and the war in Ukraine seemed blatantly wrong particularly as we approach 23 October (the public holiday commemorating the defeated Hungarian uprising against Soviet dominance in the country -TN). Fidesz is facing the most difficult commemoration of 1956 in its history: it is difficult to imagine how Fidesz's politicians will stand up in front of the people at the commemorations of 1956 with this backdrop, whilst Balázs Orbán's words provide sufficient ammunition for a large anti-government demonstration. Viktor Orbán has been avoiding Budapest on this national holiday for some time: last year he gave a speech in Veszprém without the press present, and in 2022 he spoke in Zalaegerszeg, at the opening of the Mindszentyneum, hidden behind cordons. It's not yet known where the Prime Minister will be at this year's commemoration, but it would definitely be surprising if he were to speak in the capital.

Since the clemency scandal, Fidesz has been unable to regain control of public discourse, which has traditionally been one of the ruling party's strengths. Just prior to the publication of Balázs Orbán's statement, the news was dominated by the release of a video interview with Péter Magyar's ex-girlfriend on the pro-government Index. Shortly afterwards, Attorney General Péter Polt announced that he had initiated the suspension of Péter Magyar's immunity (as an MEP) because of the phone-scandal that happened in the summer. For a short while, it seemed that they had finally managed to get a grip on Magyar, who had been the constant target of attacks in the propaganda publications until then. However, Balázs Orbán's sentences changed everything, and nobody is talking about what Evelin Vogel said to Index any more.

Instead, the Tisza Party, which is a right-wing party like Fidesz and uses national messages and symbols in its politics, has once again been handed a subject which allows it to call into question the national character of Fidesz. They even managed to pry a national symbol – the flag with a hole in it which was the symbol of the '56 revolution – out of the hands of Fidesz, which has been systematically appropriating the concept of nationhood for years.

The internal unity of Fidesz may have been threatened

In light of all this, it would have seemed easier to sack the political director. In the cases of Katalin Novák and Judit Varga, the Prime Minister did not think twice when it seemed that the pardon case would hurt the government. The fact that Balázs Orbán is not nearly as well-known as Katalin Novák, who was the face of Fidesz's family policy for years, could have also been an argument in favour of the sacking.

Except that the political landscape was very different when the clemency scandal broke: Nothing seemed to threaten the power of Viktor Orbán and Fidesz. The opposition was still reeling from its crushing defeat in 2022, and Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party were not on the horizon. It was in this situation that the Prime Minister decided to cut the matter short, because he felt that in the long run the clemency case could cause serious damage to Fidesz.

It is a different matter that the departure of the Novák and Varga did not actually put an end to the clemency case, as the former President still hasn't provided an explanation for her decision. "I am among those who would like to know [why Endre K. was pardoned]. I would very much like to finally know how it is possible to grant clemency for a crime committed against a minor in Hungary. I find this outrageous and unforgivable, both within a political community and for the country as well," Minister of Transport and Construction János Lázár said at one point.

The decision was not so straightforward in the case of Balázs Orbán. The political director seems to be a more important player in Viktor Orbán's power structure than the president. This is also evident from who Fidesz chose to succeed Katalin Novák, and the weight her successor, Tamás Sulyok, has had in public life since taking office.

Balázs Orbán was the one who came up with the main elements of the government's strategy for the coming years. The Prime Minister has recently been regularly talking about connectivity, economic neutrality, and staying out of economic blocs. Each of these buzzwords comes from Balázs Orbán's book Huszárvágás (Hussar Cut: The Hungarian strategy for connectivity). Sacking the man who came up with the whole grand strategy of economic neutrality would have been painful. However, Balázs Orbán's job doesn't just entail thinking about connectivity and economic neutrality: he has also played a key role in building the Orbán government's international image.

Not to mention that if he had followed the example of Katalin Novák and Judit Varga, Fidesz, which was already struggling with problems of succession and a shortage of cadres, would have lost its third influential young politician.

The sacking of Balázs Orbán would have also sent the wrong message within Fidesz, as it would have suggested that the party was becoming more likely to back away from its people who make mistakes. In the past, they have stood by their politicians after scandals such as Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó's yachting adventure, Antal Rogán's (the head of the Prime Minister's Cabinet Office) helicopter ride to a wedding, or the strange circumstances of János Lázár's law on tobacco shops, despite the fact that these were different types of cases. The dismissal of Balázs Orbán could have undermined the internal unity of Fidesz, which is based on the principle that if you are loyal, we will not let go of your hand. If one is to believe the information received by political analyst Gábor Török, whispers about who will be the first to make a move towards the Tisza Party can already be heard within Fidesz.

From this point of view, it was a logical decision for the Prime Minister to keep his political director despite all the criticism, even at the risk of providing a platform for his political opponents to attack him for a long time to come. Orbán probably came to the conclusion that with the Tisza Party gaining strength, it was more important to keep his camp together and secure the unconditional support of the party than to disarm the seething public by sacrificing yet another leader.

To protect his guy, Orbán switched to being pugnacious

Instead of backing down, Orbán has gone full steam ahead with the narrative that no parallels can be drawn between 1956 and the war in Ukraine, because the very idea is an insult to the memory of the freedom fighters. This is what he hit back with last Wednesday at the European Parliament's plenary session when Ursula Von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, slammed him for the Hungarian government's failure to clearly condemn Russian aggression.

"I deliberately avoided Ukraine when talking about the presidency, but if you wish to talk about it, let's talk about it. First of all, Madam President of the Commission, I reject in the strongest terms what you said. Any analogy or comparison of the Hungarian freedom fighters of 1956 with Ukraine is a mistake and a desecration of the memory of the freedom fighters. There is absolutely no similarity between '56 and the Ukrainian-Russian war," Orbán said. This was an especially bold move on his part, given that Balázs Orbán, who had compared the war in Ukraine to 1956, just as von der Leyen did, was sitting behind him in the chamber.

A few years ago, the Prime Minister was not so sensitive to the memory of the freedom fighters of 1956. In October 2022, he himself likened Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Imre Nagy, who was executed after the 1956 revolution. "Our Zelensky, the Hungarian Prime Minister at the time, was executed after 1956," he told Kossuth Rádió back then. At the time, it was in his interest to justify the Hungarian government's so-called pro-peace policy with the memory of 1956. He argued that in 1956, the Hungarians did not want to defeat the Soviet army, but wanted to force a ceasefire and peace negotiations.

Times have certainly changed, as now, according to the Prime Minister, such a comparison would be wrong and offensive. Just how quickly times change is shown in the fact that a mere two weeks before Balázs Orbán's highly controversial words, Bálint Somkuti, who was recently appointed research fellow at the Centre for Researching Sovereignty Protection, said that it was a good thing the West did not help us in '56, because we could have ended up like the Ukrainians.

This is not the first time that Viktor Orbán has resorted to responding to an embarrassing case or scandal by counter-attacking instead of retreating. Many will recall what he said about the much-criticized extension of the narrow-gauge railway line in his home village of Felcsút, or when he was criticized in parliament for travelling to football matches on István Garancsi's private jet. "That's how I went 30 years ago, and that's how I'm going to travel next week and the week after that," he told MPs of the right-wing Jobbik, who had questioned him.

Orbán is not just ready to fight when he is the one attacked, he has defended his people with similar vigour in years past. It is typical of the Prime Minister's personnel policy to publicly stand up for his own in order to bind them even more closely to himself and to secure their loyalty, just like he did in the case of the Szijjártó or Rogán scandals. This may well be the logic behind the decision to keep Balázs Orbán.