Majority holds Orbán responsible for clemency decision, survey shows

A representative poll conducted by Republikon Intézet in late February reveals that the Hungarian public mainly holds Prime Minister Viktor Orbán responsible for the biggest domestic political scandal of recent years, known as the presidential pardon case. Among the entire population, only one in four people are of the opinion that President Katalin Novák, who granted a presidential pardon to Endre K., and then resigned after the story became known to the public, responsible. As we have previously reported, the former deputy director and teacher at the Bicske children’s home had been convicted of coercion. Naturally, opposition and governing party voters have very different views on the role of the President and the Prime Minister in the story, the survey reveals.

One in seven respondents believe that Novák's adviser, Bishop Zoltán Balog, was instrumental in the decision being made. At the same time, regardless of party affiliation, the proportion of respondents who point to the responsibility of former Justice Minister Judit Varga is negligible, even though Varga would have had the power to block the decision and in spite of the existing precedent of the Justice Minister not always countersigning a presidential pardon in recent decades. The last time a justice minister had refused to do this happened in 1998, 26 years ago, which is why it has been a recurring theme in the government’s communication that Varga was merely following 25 years of constitutional practice when approving Endre K.'s presidential pardon.

The authors of the research believe that the perception of Judit Varga may also be influenced by the public remarks of her ex-husband, Péter Magyar. (Magyar has been extremely vocal about his criticism of the government in the wake of his ex-wife’s resignation, and has given several lengthy interviews to independent media about the inner workings and his disapproval of the Orbán system. – TN) This is likely part of the reason why there has been less attention and popular anger directed at the former minister, who also resigned after the scandal broke and announced her immediate withdrawal from public life.

Although many of the details of the events surrounding the case remain unclear, the information available suggests that Endre K. was pardoned without the knowledge of Viktor Orbán. It is unlikely that the Prime Minister would have agreed to such a decision, partly due to the political risks involved. On the other hand, it is also apparent that many consider the functioning of the Hungarian state to be so centralised that despite the aggressive communication campaigns of the government's influencers at Megafon and other communication manoeuvres, some of the responsibility has inevitably fallen back on the Prime Minister. According to the survey’s authors, this may be partly explained by the fact that the request for pardon passed through the hands of a member of the Orbán government before reaching the President's desk.

The political weight of the situation is reflected in the fact that – even if only a small number of them, but – some Fidesz-KDNP voters also believe that the Prime Minister is responsible for the pardon. Around ten percent of governing party voters do not believe that Orbán only learned about the decision from the press, although this group primarily holds Katalin Novák and Bishop Zoltán Balog, a close friend of hers, responsible.

Republikon notes that this is in line with the information obtained by the press, which also suggests that Balog's role in the case was significant, while Viktor Orbán was unaware of it. At the same time, the authors of the research point out that it would be in the interest of the governing parties to have whistleblowers inform investigative journalists that Balog acted without the knowledge of the Prime Minister, as the downfall of the Reformed Bishop carries less political weight. Balog, who headed the Ministry of Human Resources between 2012 and 2018, also resigned as President of the Synod of the Reformed Church of Hungary after the clemency scandal broke out.

Judit Varga's role is seen as a priority by four percent of pro-government voters, so the pro-government narrative has at least been successfuly presented to Fidesz-KDNP voters.

All this is almost entirely lost on the opposition parties' supporters, however, as the vast majority of them believe that Viktor Orbán is responsible for what happened, and this group has the highest proportion of those who believe the Prime Minister to be responsible. Only one fifth of them think that Katalin Novák was to blame, and a little more than ten percent of them highlighted the role of Zoltán Balog, while only a negligible number believes that Judit Varga was responsible.

In its research, Republikon treated the opinion of Mi Hazánk voters separately, since in many cases, despite being an opposition party, they share the government's position. As it turns out, the vast majority of them also believe that Endre K., who for years helped cover up the fact that János Vásárhelyi, the director of the Bicske children's home regularly molested the residents of the institution, was pardoned with the approval of the Prime Minister.

Fewer of the undecided voters share this opinion, but most of them also believe that the responsibility for the pardon lies with the Prime Minister. The second biggest group among them is made up of those who believe that the former president is responsible for the clemency decision, although the distribution of responses in this group is slightly different from that in the overall population.