No veto from Orbán, EU reaches deal on €50 billion in aid for Ukraine

"We have a deal", the President of the European Council wrote on X (formerly Twitter). Charles Michel announced that all 27 EU heads of state and government had agreed to the €50 billion aid package for Ukraine "within the EU budget".

Thursday's extraordinary EU summit was necessary because at their last meeting in December, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoed an increase in the common budget and continued support for Ukraine.

The Hungarian government originally wanted to keep the package outside the budget, which would have been a more complicated and politically riskier solution. Hungary’s EU affairs minister János Bóka, however, told the Financial Times on Saturday that they had indicated they would accept a budgetary solution.

The Hungarian government also would have preferred to have a unanimous annual decision taken on whether or not to proceed, but a large number of member states opposed this. Charles Michel's post on this says only that the deal will provide "steadfast, long-term, predictable funding" for Ukraine. According to an article of Euractiv on Wednesday, the most recent draft of the European Council's conclusions, drawn up after that day's preparatory meeting of member state ambassadors, offered an annual debate but no veto.

Politico reports that it was a small group of national leaders who ended up convincing the Hungarian Prime Minister. The first meeting was with Ursula von der Leyen, who heads the European Commission, as well as with Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Several other national leaders, including Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, Donald Tusk of Poland and Alexander De Croo of Belgium joined the meeting later. It is likely that the photo posted on Viktor Orbán's Facebook page early this morning was taken at this meeting, based on the participants shown.

Citing the spokesman for Charles Michel, the Guardian reports that the others were quickly consulted and agreed once the deal was struck.

What did Orbán achieve?

The paper writes that they made concessions on two points. The European Commission will hold a review in two years' time, which will be voted on, but it is not clear whether unanimously or, for example, by qualified majority (where at least four member states are needed for a proposal to be rejected). In addition, the spokesman mentioned an additional measure on the rule of law conditionality mechanism, but the article does not reveal any more details.

This is the procedure which has led to the withholding of roughly €6.3 billion of the €20 billion funds blocked from Hungary, and to the banning of the trust fund-run institutions, including the 21 Hungarian universities with this background, from EU commitments.

Citing a recent draft of the conclusions, Politico reports that other than the review at the end of the second year, the European Commission will report annually on the implementation of the aid programme and, if necessary, the heads of state and government will hold a debate. There is also a reference to an earlier conclusions from December 2020 on guaranteeing that the way rule of law in Hungary is evaluated by the European Commission is done in fair and objective manner

Zelensky is thankful

"I am grateful to Charles Michel and the EU leaders", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X, commenting on the news. The Ukrainian president said it was very important that the decision was taken by all 27 heads of state and government, which "once again proves the strong unity of the EU". Continued He added that continued EU funding would reinforce long-term economic and financial stability, in his country, which is no less important than military assistance and sanctions pressure on Russia.

"The EU keeps its promise to Ukraine," Alexander De Croo posted on X. The Belgian Prime Minister added that the unity of the 27 member states had been reaffirmed.