Is the Ukrainian secret service operation aiming to discredit Viktor Orbán propaganda or reality?

According to several sources independent of each other who are aware of what was said at last Tuesday's meeting of the Parliament's National Security Committee, none of the leaders of the Hungarian secret services suggested that the Direkt36 investigative journalism centre was in any way involved in the intelligence operation aiming to discredit Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Zoltán Sas, (Jobbik), the chairman of the committee confirmed for Telex that Direkt36 was not mentioned in the presentation on the Ukrainian operation. According to Sas, however, it is true that there is indeed a Ukrainian secret service operation against Hungary and the Prime Minister, and that the members of the committee were indeed informed about it, but he could not provide any specific details.

Despite the fact that nobody suggested that Direkt36 was part of the Ukrainian operation, after the meeting of the National Security Committee, Fidesz immediately started firing at the independent press, especially Direkt36, which happened to be publishing a film about the business empire of Viktor Orbán's family last week, a few days after the Committee's meeting. The film has since been seen by more than two million people. Following the meeting, Magyar Nemzet published a piece according to which "As part of the operation of the Ukrainian secret service, Direkt36, which calls itself an investigative journalism portal and operates on Telex's platform, has already started working on a slanderous video".

Reacting to Magyar Nemzet's accusations, Direkt36 wrote that not a word of the pro-government newspaper's allegations is true. The documentary, like all articles and other content of Direkt36, is the result of the work of their editorial staff. Tamás Menczer, the communications director of Fidesz-KDNP, later wrote on his social media page that "Direkt36's film attacking Viktor Orbán is the first part of the smear campaign launched by the Ukrainian state", to which Direkt36 again issued a rebuttal.

What we are currently seeing are in fact two independent processes, each with a different purpose. On the one hand, according to the Hungarian secret services, there genuinely is an actual Ukrainian operation going on, with clearly identifiable actors, the details of which are, of course, secret. And there is another process:

Fidesz is using this for their party's political purposes, conflating lies with the truth.

From a communication point of view, this technique is very convenient for Fidesz, as it allows them to introduce content into the public arena which – and of this they are fully aware – the secret services concerned are not allowed to comment on. After all, only a small part of what was said at the meeting of the National Security Committee can be made public, and there’s no reason to worry about Ukraine speaking out on the matter. Consequently, it would be vain for either the opposition or the press to expect evidence or specifics about the Ukrainian operation, given that the nature of the intelligence services doesn't allow this.

Meanwhile, those critical of the government are understandably suspicious. Especially given that the fabrication of enemies and the amplification of international conspiracy theories have been an integral part of the Hungarian government's communication for a long time. Except that the focus has not been on a specific state, but on more symbolic actors such as George Soros, Brussels, international speculators, the deep state and the list goes on.

Fidesz has always been fond of referring to intelligence operations in its communications. Whereas, for example, the fact that certain organisations favoured by US Democratic Party circles also provide financial support to foreign actors (such as NGOs or even political actors) representing values important to them does not constitute US intelligence (CIA) funding. Nor is it an operation of the Hungarian intelligence services aiming to exert influence if organisations linked to the ruling party and fattened up with state funds, but otherwise described as NGOs are financing players in US politics, as was done with several supporters of Donald Trump and around the American alt-right movement. While these activities are carried out openly, without any secrecy, the intelligence operations are carried out as secretly as possible, with the involvement of a very limited number of people.

The state of Ukraine has its own intelligence services. It is currently at war with Russia and its very existence is under threat – so it cannot be mentioned in the same breath as non-state actors.

Since it’s at war, it may well be in Ukraine's national security interests to try to stir things up in states whose foreign policies it considers to be a threat to it or harmful to its interests. The places Ukraine might perceive as such could be Hungary – which is pursuing a policy of its own towards Russia even though it's in the EU –, as well as Slovakia or the non-EU member Serbia. And, of course, in the same way – but with far greater resources – the other warring party, Russia also has such operations across Europe.

The same could be true the other way round too, i.e. Hungarian intelligence might be active in Ukraine in order to defend Hungary's foreign policy interests. In the summer of 2015, János Lázár – who, as minister, was also heading the Information Office responsible for intelligence at the time – spoke about this at a meeting of the National Security Committee openly.

At the time, Lázár said that the national security situation of Hungary had been radically altered by the Ukrainian-Russian conflict going on back then, and that for this reason the Information Office needed to be reorganised and strengthened by more staff.

“The military intelligence service, the military intelligence service and the civilian intelligence service have all done an excellent job on this in Ukraine.”

– Lázár explained then, adding that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is doing all it can to obstruct the Hungarian government's efforts aiming to ease the daily life of the Hungarian population in Transcarpathia.

His comments at the time were criticised by former Hungarian intelligence officers, who said that he had revealed a secret that could jeopardise the position of the Hungarian services in Ukraine. How much of this concern was genuine is not known, but we do know that the Ukrainian and Hungarian services have been working against each other for a long time.

However, the public only learns about these activities when it is in the interest of the intelligence services of one of the countries concerned. Or worse, when leaking it serves the interests of the government of one of the countries concerned, even if it might weaken the position of its own intelligence services in the other country. Although it is not possible to see what is going on behind the scenes, certain events suggest that

what is happening right now is – in addition to serving Fidesz's false communication for domestic political purposes – part of an intelligence game.

The main topic the media focused on after the 14 January meeting of the National Security Committee was the case of Antal Rogán being banned from the US, although it seems that the Ukrainian operation was already brought up by the intelligence leaders at the time. It was stated at that meeting that, according to the secret services, there was a discernible process involving several actors from the international arena.

After the meeting on 14 January, Zoltán Sas said that according to the intelligence services, these unnamed actors were trying to tarnish US-Hungarian relations and undermine their effectiveness before the new US administration took office. Sas could not comment anything further to Telex at the time, but one could infer that there is a country (or countries) in the region which is not interested in improved US-Hungarian political relations in the event of a Trump administration, and which might even use their intelligence services to disrupt the relationship.

It is conceivable that the sentences uttered at the meeting on 14 January could have been intended as a message, a kind of signal to Ukraine, to let them know that their activities were known. It could also be a signal that the country was then named at the meeting that followed. This could even be an indication that the Ukrainians did not stop the operation – if they had, they would probably not have been named. Of course, by leaking the information, the Hungarians are also risking a lot, as the most important thing for the secret services is to protect their sources and methods.

What remains unclear in this story is what was more important: the political or the intelligence interest?

Was it to inform the public about the Ukrainian operation, which could then be used for the purposes of the party, or was it to send the Ukrainians a strong signal?