Balázs Orbán hints at the possibility of Hungary not supporting EC President again

The Hungarian Prime Minister's Political Director, Balázs Orbán (no relation to the PM – ed.), complained to Politico's Monday newsletter about the leadership of the European Commission. According to the paper, the Prime Minister's Political Director implied that there was no guarantee that the Hungarian government would vote for Ursula von der Leyen being Commission President again.

They are unhappy with the Commission President

The German centre-right politician was appointed head of the EU's quasi-government in 2019 with the support of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, among others. The Commission President is appointed by EU heads of state and government, but the appointment only requires a qualified majority, meaning one or two member states cannot veto the decision. The Commission’s renewal is due next June, after the European parliamentary elections.

Balázs Orbán told Politico that the Hungarian government was very supportive of Ursula von der Leyen, but that she has been "pushing her own political agenda without consulting member states" on geopolitical issues, relations with the US and China, and regarding topics related to war and sanctions.

"The way the Commission operates is not good for unity, it's divisive",

because "they come up with a proposal and then pressure the member states to give their approval". (After the interview, the next point in the newsletter was about the Commission President having consulted with member states' EU ambassadors ahead of next week's State of the Union speech which will kick off the political season.)

Ursula von der Leyen has not yet formally announced whether she would lead the European Commission for another five years, but several national leaders have indicated that they would welcome her in office again. When making the nomination, heads of state and government must take into account the outcome of the European parliamentary elections, and the next Commission President is then elected by MEPs.

Expecting a positive signal on the blocked payments

Politico also asked Balázs Orbán about EU payments blocked over corruption and rule of law concerns. The state secretary said that

“Brussels has less and less room for maneuver. They will have to give some sort of positive signal.”

They would cooperate with the center-right

Balázs Orbán believes that it's not out of the question for right-wing parties to win a majority in next year's EP elections.

"I think we have a chance.

I think it will be very close. The right is going to win in France. The right is going to win in Italy, in Germany, Austria, Hungary, and in Poland, and those are the bigger countries", and he expects a close result in Spain. But he admitted that a coalition of moderate and radical right-wing parties is problematic, because it's already been ruled out by the German and Polish center-right, for example. "We want to support the right, and cooperate with the center-right," he said.

As we recently wrote, both Politico and Europe Elects expect a strengthening of the eurosceptic and anti-EU right-wing parties, but neither of them have given any real chance to forming a viable, all-right coalition, and it is doubtful whether such a majority will be achieved at all. One of the big winners in the polls is the eurosceptic grouping of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Over the summer Tamás Deutsch (Fidesz-delegated MEP) said that Fidesz, which has been without an EU party family since its departure from the EPP in 2021, may actually join it. Balázs Orbán is also of the opinion that this group would be "one of the normal places for us to land". (Our analysis from last year showed that since the split, Fidesz has voted with the EPP most of the time, but the ECR comes a close second.)

Hungary may veto starting accession talks with Ukraine

When speaking with Politico, the state secretary reiterated the Hungarian government's position that Hungary is blocking Ukraine's EU accession because of the way it treats Hungarians in Transcarpathia.

"Ukraine's position on the Hungarian minority is completely unacceptable", and "until this problem is solved, we can not support the EU's enlargement process towards Ukraine.

This is a rock-solid position. It's better if they understand this if they aspire to be members of the EU." The Hungarian government wants Hungarians in Transcarpathia to have the same rights they had before the war. "The way things were before was fine for us".

Important steps in the accession process require member states’ unanimous decision. These include membership candidacy, which Ukraine was awarded last year, as well as the opening of negotiations, for which the European Commission has set seven preconditions for Ukraine – one of them is respect for minority rights. The body publishes its annual enlargement reports on the candidate countries in the autumn, and this is when it can propose, for example, the opening of accession talks.

EC: Ukraine must make more progress on minority rights

There has clearly been progress in some areas, but more needs to be done in others, "including on minorities",

Ana Pisonero said of Balázs Orbán's statements on Ukraine. The spokeswoman for the European Commission confirmed that Ukraine should also respect the recommendations of the Venice Commission (as previously reported, the non-EU constitutional body gave its opinion on Ukraine's minority law this summer, which it welcomed but recommended a series of amendments.)

The commission's foreign affairs spokesperson recalled that during the summer, the body's enlargement commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi, gave an interim assessment of the progress made by Ukraine and other candidate countries. Enlargement reports are already being prepared, which will formally present the Commission's opinion later this autumn.