According to Medián’s latest survey, the Tisza Party’s advantage has continued to grow. In the second half of March, the survey showed Tisza ahead of Fidesz–KDNP by 16 percentage points among the total population, by 20 percentage points among decided voters, and 23 percentage points among those who are certain to vote.
Endre Hann, managing director of the Medián Public Opinion and Market Research Institute presented the results of the survey, conducted between March 17 and 20, on Hvg.hu’s program “Fülke” on Wednesday. Hann began by saying that they are expecting a high turnout in the April 12 parliamentary election, as the percentage of those who say they are certain to vote has consistently been above 80 percent for several months.
Hann believes it is likely that the next parliament will only have two parties, meaning that only Fidesz–KDNP and the Tisza Party will have representatives in Parliament.
As for Mi Hazánk, he said that according to their polls, the party currently falls short of the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament.
According to Medián, support for the Tisza Party stands at 46 percent among the total population, while it is at 58 percent among those certain to vote. This represents an increase of 4 and 3 percentage points respectively, compared to the previous survey conducted in February. Fidesz-KDNP stands at 30 percent among the total population and 35 percent among those certain to vote. If the figures from this latest survey were to materialize on April 12, it would secure a two-thirds majority for the Tisza Party in the next parliament, Medián has reported.
Among the smaller parties, the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) have been around 1-2 percent in Medián’s polls for several months, and in March, the voter base of Mi Hazánk shrank. László Toroczkai’s party was measured at 4 percent among those certain to vote.
Medián considers it a significant development that it has never appeared more likely that the Tisza Party would form a government than it does right now. According to their data, 47 percent of the total voting-age population expects Péter Magyar’s party to win the election, while only 35 percent expect a Fidesz–KDNP victory. This 12-percentage-point gap in favor of Tisza represents a truly significant shift: just two months ago, a slim majority of voters still expected a Fidesz victory.
Methodology
The survey was conducted between March 17 and 20 by Medián via telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 people. Minor distortions in the sample were corrected through weighting, so the sample accurately reflects the composition of the voting-age population by place of residence, gender, age, and educational attainment. (The margin of error is ±3.1 percent.)