Viktor Orbán declared that the war is over. So why is there still a state of danger due to war in Hungary?

The Russian army launched its attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022, and in the week of the third anniversary of the beginning of the war, Viktor Orbán declared that peace had come.

At that point, there had only been a few telephone conversations and some form of negotiations had begun, but the fighting was still going on at the front. Meanwhile, in recent days, the Hungarian Prime Minister has made several statements in which he declared that the war is over. However, he jumped the gun a little, because much has changed since the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Friday.

26 February 2025: "Peace is like this. ✌" This is how Viktor Orbán reacted to the exchange rate of the euro temporarily falling below 400 forints, which has not happened since October last year. Since then, it has climbed back above 400.

27 February 2025: "The war is over, 2025 will be the first year of peace. It couldn't come at a better time. There has been too much trouble and hardship, it's a wonder we've made it this far with such burdens. This is new year, a new era, with new opportunities." The Prime Minister said that now is the time to think bold and big things and do what has long been in the pipeline – like tax exemption for mothers.

28 February 2025: Explaining the tax exemption for mothers with several children and the VAT refund for pensioners, he said, "All of these have a common precondition, which is called peace. They cannot be done in wartime."

Compared to his previous statements, Orbán here refined his message a bit: "Of course, you could now say – but you are polite and you aren't saying it – that there is no peace yet. And there is some truth in this because there are still very serious, painful and bloody battles on the front lines, but everyone feels that peace is close at hand."

He added: "What is clear is that the war will not escalate. So even if the war continues, the chances of it reaching us are almost zero now. [...] The possibility of this war spreading and the Western world, with America at the forefront, getting entangled in it, which was a real threat, is history."

So the Prime Minister has made two strong statements in recent days:

1. The war is over, peace is here.
2. Peace is rather close at hand, but the chances of the war reaching Hungary are zero, nil. That danger no longer exists.

One of these statements must be true, as Viktor Orbán himself said, "The truth does not depend on how many people believe it. The truth is what I say."

But if, according to Orbán, the war is over and/or there is now zero danger of it reaching us, why is Hungary still under a state of danger due to war? By its very name, such a state surely requires two things: war and danger.

In recent years, Hungary has become a country of emergency and crisis situations. Since March 2020, with only a few months' pause, there has been a continuous succession of crises: general, health, migration, and war-related. In the spring of 2022, as soon as the threat of the coronavirus epidemic had passed, Russia invaded Ukraine, giving the government another opportunity to declare a new state of emergency. Since then, the state of danger due to war has been repeatedly extended.

In principle, emergency legislation allows the government to respond effectively and quickly to emerging problems, and each time, the government has used this as justification for prolonging the state of danger.

"In view of the armed conflict and the humanitarian disaster on the territory of Ukraine, and in order to avert their consequences in Hungary"

– this phrase has accompanied numerous legislative amendments and new proposals over the past three years, including those that are difficult – if not impossible – to justify based on the war in the neighboring country. The government does not hesitate to use its emergency powers for actions that have little connection to the war.

For example, in August 2022, when the national holiday fireworks display was postponed for a week due to a storm, a government decree citing the state of danger stated that public areas could be used free of charge for the rescheduled event in Budapest. The justification for this decree? "The armed conflict and humanitarian disaster on the territory of Ukraine." It is questionable how the free use of public spaces was linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

A year later, in 2023, emergency legislation was used to facilitate the immediate dismissal of teachers involved in civil disobedience. The reasoning was that, because of the state of danger due to the war, an employer was no longer required to dismiss a disobedient teacher within 15 days of becoming aware of their offense; instead, they could do so at any time until August 1 of the school year in question. The Interior Ministry (which oversees education – TN) failed to explain how this regulation was connected to the war.

Similarly, a decree restricting access to government decisions made during the coronavirus pandemic was issued under the pretext of the war-related state of danger. During the pandemic, there was a "task force" which made daily decisions affecting public life, such as mask mandates, curfews, and vaccination programmes. There were minutes taken at these meetings, and after the pandemic subsided, many attempted to obtain them to understand the decision-making process. In response, the government issued a regulation preventing their release. However, the state of danger due to war has no connection to a public health emergency.

In the past, the government also cited the state of danger due to war when it deemed it scaremongering to spread rumors that, despite the ongoing fuel price cap, fuel prices for firefighters and ambulances would increase. The controversial decree easing restrictions on deforestation and tree felling was also justified on the grounds of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Hungary has been under a state of danger due to war for nearly three years. We asked the government when it would be lifted in light of the Prime Minister's recent statements about peace and the end of the threat of war, but we received no reply.

At a Cabinet briefing on Thursday, Gergely Gulyás, Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office was also asked about this. He responded that once peace is achieved and an agreement is signed, the state of danger will either expire or be lifted by Parliament. Apparently, the minister does not fully agree with his boss about the war being over.

And indeed, the war is not over. On Friday, Volodymyr Zelensky left the White House after an extremely tense meeting, without signing the Ukrainian-American agreement on the exploitation of Ukraine's mineral resources – an important condition for the peace deal Trump had sought to broker. Since then, Zelensky has expressed regret over his statements during the talks and acknowledged that he needs U.S. support to achieve peace.

Meanwhile, in London, European leaders have been discussing their support for Ukraine and working on a plan to end the fighting, in coordination with the United States. However, Viktor Orbán now claims that "European leaders in London have decided that what is needed is not peace, but war," as his Sunday evening Facebook post testifies.

Even if peace were to be achieved, Hungary would still not be without a crisis situation. The country has been under a state of danger due to mass immigration for nine and a half years now.