Balázs Orbán's statement on 1956 reveals Fidesz’s multiplying weaknesses

Balázs Orbán's recent statement about '56 could prove politically dangerous for Fidesz because, like the clemency scandal, it belies the image that Fidesz and Viktor Orbán have projected about themselves. Katalin Novák's clemency decision undermined Fidesz's family-friendly image, while the statements of the Prime Minister's Political Director call into question Fidesz's militant anti-communism and fierce patriotism. According to Fidesz mythology, Viktor Orbán was effectively the one who single-handedly sent the Soviet troops home with his speech delivered at the reburial of Imre Nagy (in 1989).

In comparison, last week, speaking in a recorded interview with Mandiner, the Prime Minister's Political Director said that "precisely because of '56, we probably wouldn't have done what President Zelensky did two and a half years ago, because it's irresponsible, because one can see that he took his country into a war of defense". For the time being, Viktor Orbán settled the matter in his usual Friday-morning radio interview by describing Balázs Orbán's remarks as a mistake, but added that his political director would "definitely fight alongside us at Corvin köz". He was much less forgiving in the case of Katalin Novák.

The Balázs Orbán affair highlights several weaknesses of Fidesz. On the one hand, it could undermine the new communication strategy which has been in the making. During the summer it was hard not to notice that Viktor Orbán, who had hitherto systematically avoided the independent press, repeatedly stopped to talk to journalists in a manner uncharacteristic of him. One of the best examples of this was at the Kötcse picnic, where the Prime Minister spent a quarter of an hour answering questions from the press before delivering his usual agenda-setting speech to the inner circle of Fidesz. Journalists could ask Orbán just about anything from the state of the healthcare system and the economy to the renewal within Fidesz, and even the Tisza Party and the disgraced Father Gergő Bese.

In recent years, details of Orbán's speech at Kötcse would have at the most been leaked in the Fidesz-friendly press. This year, however, Orbán himself posted excerpts from the speech on his own Facebook page. 24.hu even managed to catch up with the Prime Minister during the recent flood on the Danube for a brief question (this, of course, does not obscure the fact that Orbán has not given a proper interview to a serious Hungarian press publication for several years). Other Fidesz politicians have followed suit: both Fidesz' communications director Tamás Menczer and government spokesperson Eszter Vitályos recently agreed to speak to outlets critical of the government at some length.

The shift in Fidesz' communication which could be observed in recent weeks is no coincidence. According to ATV and Szabad Európa, in a private circle in Kötcse Orbán spoke of the changed domestic political battlefield, and said that the 2026 parliamentary elections would be a clash of visions of the future. He also provided a recipe for victory: the political debates must be won. According to sources of Szabad Európa, he specifically said: "We have to win these policy disputes. We have to win the debate about healthcare, that while there is still much room for improvement in the Hungarian healthcare system, it is still better now than it was at the time of the government change (i.e. when Fidesz came to power – TN) and we are constantly working on making things better. We know best what needs to happen for this to be achieved. And we need to be able to win those disputes, not just on healthcare, but in all the other big areas as well." It is unclear exactly how the Prime Minister envisages winning these debates though.

The reason why this statement comes as a surprise from Orbán is because under his leadership, Fidesz and the government have done nothing but obstruct meaningful professional debate for years, whether it be on education, healthcare or anything else. They also eliminated opportunities for meaningful dialogue on important issues such as migration, child protection or LGBTQ rights. Fidesz's culture of debate has largely boiled down to repeating one of the following: it's Gyurcsány's fault, it’s Soros's fault, or talking about “the dollar-funded left” or “pro-war politicians”. The direction outlined at Kötcse is thus partly at odds with Fidesz's track record of exercising power.

The recent sudden rise of the Tisza Party is likely what has made them feel the need for change. What has been enough for victory so far may no longer be enough in 2026. It is no coincidence that Orbán spoke of a changed domestic political battlefield. Although according to reports, he never mentioned either Péter Magyar or the Tisza Party by name, it is not hard to guess what he attributes the changed balance of power to. Orbán, of course, denied that he spoke to the press because Péter Magyar's party is starting to gain on Fidesz. "I simply missed you all," he replied when asked if the Tisza Party's growing popularity had anything to do with him stopping to speak to the press this year. Balázs Orbán's statements also made lots of noise because perhaps for the first time since 2010, Fidesz actually has a real challenger. Although Fidesz politicians have made some clumsy statements in the past too, there hasn’t been anyone who could take full advantage of them. Balázs Orbán was likely also attempting to win a (professional) debate.

He was likely just trying to justify the government's so-called pro-peace policy with his statement last week. We saw how successful that was. What he revealed instead was that Fidesz still has not managed to resolve the contradiction between its increasingly open pro-Russian stance and the legacy of 1956. The question now is how willing Fidesz politicians will be to engage with the critical press after this, especially since Balázs Orbán did not make his mistake when answering critical questions, but on his home turf, before the cameras of the friendly press. Additionally, the words of the political director were not even spoken in a live programme, but in a video which was afterwards edited – which also suggest that neither Balázs Orbán nor the person interviewing him found the content problematic.

Balázs Orbán's blunder therefore shows that going forward, winning these professional debates will be difficult even with the completely centralized propaganda machine. The pro-government press, which has been carefully built up over the years, and where influencers like Dániel Bohár are the ones telling us why Fidesz is right about something, would need to be fundamentally retuned. It is hard to imagine them suddenly giving a free hand to newspapers whose only task has been to repeat the government's narrative without any criticism whatsoever. For this reason, it is possible that governing politicians may start talking to press outlets that are not under the government's control.

According to the investigative portal VSquare, Orbán is also dissatisfied with the performance of the Fidesz media and is planning a major restructuring. This could affect, among others, the public media, which has long served as a mouthpiece for Fidesz, as well as Fidesz' influencer training center, Megafon. "Orbán feels that they failed to successfully connect with voters in the EP elections, which is why some things need to change," a source close to the government told VSquare. Although Fidesz won the EP elections on 9 June, the huge mobilisation effort that was previously announced turned out to be a flop, with a large number of those who voted for Fidesz in 2022 not even showing up to vote.

The scandal also highlights another problem Fidesz is facing. After nearly 20 years of governance, talented and autonomous politicians have either disappeared or have been removed from the upper echelons of Fidesz. Their place was taken by devout cadres who focus more on executing the prime minister's political will, since this is what has been needed most to advance within the party. This is precisely why mistakes like the one made by Balázs Orbán have been able to occur.

The 61-year-old Viktor Orbán is well aware of the problem of succession. Speaking in Tusványos this summer he said that "we need young, courageous fighters with national sentiment " and "tough, young people with national sentiment and guts, with both feet firmly on the ground". A look through the ranks of Fidesz will reveal that the generational turnover initiated a few years ago has not been successful. In the clemency scandal, the bigger governing party lost Katalin Novák and Judit Varga, two leading politicians it had spent years building up.

Similar criticism was voiced by János Lázár, a veteran by Fidesz standards, at the Tranzit Festival in August. Speaking about the failed attempt at a rejuvenation, he said that “it didn't work out so well, as the cases of Péter Magyar, Katalin Novák and Judit Varga demonstrate. (...) It's not good to give someone very young and without experience too much responsibility. It will lead to trouble. And in my opinion, we have burnt ourselves pretty badly on this issue.”

Another reason why Balázs Orbán's botched remarks may have also come at a bad time for Fidesz is that they have not been able to regain control over public discourse since the clemency scandal. The summer season has in the past usually been dominated by Viktor Orbán, but this year it was all about Péter Magyar and his activities in hospitals across the country. Last week, it was beginning to look like they had finally got a grip on the leader of the Tisza Party, who until then had not been affected by the attacks of the propaganda machinery. Pro-government Index published a video interview with Péter Magyar's ex, Evelin Vogel last Wednesday, in which she said that "Péter Magyar is not who he appears to be". The next day, the Attorney General, Péter Polt, announced that he had proposed the suspension of Péter Magyar's immunity from prosecution in connection with the investigation into the scandal at the "Ötkert" pub earlier in the summer. This was the first time that Péter Magyar found himself in a position where he was not the initiator but had to react to developments.

Or rather, it would have been, because the situation didn't last very long. On Thursday, after 444 picked it up, the entire domestic press was abuzz with Balázs Orbán's statements. With 23 October (the anniversary and day of remembrance for the victims of the 1956 revolution – ed) approaching, the scandal could easily provide Péter Magyar with enough ammunition for another big anti-government demonstration. And what's more, this is yet another case that challenges the identity of Fidesz, while it could further strengthen the Tisza Party, which has been emphasizing messages and symbols of national sentiment in its politics.

Recently, as the country prepared for the impending flood, it seemed that Balázs Orbán had been tasked with taking on Péter Magyar. Up until then, it was mainly Tamás Menczer who had played this role, but with limited success. The Prime Minister's Political Director challenged Magyar to a public debate twice in a row, but Magyar declined both times. In the end, the leader of the Tisza Party ended up being featured both on M1 and then on Kossuth Rádió (the main channels of the public TV and radio service) on the same morning – just a few hours before Balázs Orbán's statements were spotted by the press. After all this, it is hard to imagine that Balázs Orbán would again challenge Péter Magyar to a debate or attack the leader of the strongest opposition party in any way.