Head of Fidesz-affiliated research center issues apology “to everyone who feels we misled them”

“I apologize to everyone who feels we have misled them. At the same time, I must admit that the situation is actually even worse than that: in the last few days, we didn’t even believe our own data,”

this is what Ágoston Sámuel Mráz, director of Nézőpont Institute, a Fidesz-affiliated conservative research center said the first time he spoke at length about why their pre-election polls (in which they predicted a narrow victory for Fidesz) were so far off the mark. In an interview with Magyar Nemzet, Mráz also admitted that Nézőpont Institute itself had conducted research which indicated that the Tisza Party was in the lead, but when they saw that the tide was turning, they doubted that such a significant shift could occur in such a short time. However, he considers their turnout estimate their biggest methodological error: they underestimated the turnout of young Tisza voters and overestimated that of Fidesz supporters who tend to remain in the background and have lower levels of education; this, he says, is a common problem for researchers around the world.

The Fidesz-affiliated institute issued a statement last week, on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of its founding, announcing that they had reviewed their polling methodology following the 2026 parliamentery elections, and they would be restructuring their work based on the lessons learned. Most importantly, rather than primarily publishing data on party preferences, they will in the future focus on research-based analyses that highlight deeper connections.

Additionally, they will establish policy workshops under the name “Hungary 2040” and provide scholarships to students, researchers, analysts, and media outlets to “help maintain balance in democratic public life.” Mráz also promised Magyar Nemzet that, since many of them have views on the Tisza administration's “exercise of power without checks and balances,” he and Bánk Levente Boros will shortly return and resume their work as analysts.

Analyzing Fidesz’s downfall, the researcher told the newspaper that after sixteen years, the party should have sent a stronger message about its ability to change; instead, it emphasized stability. “People would have been less opposed to Fidesz if they had seen that there were new faces, new leaders, new ideas, and that Fidesz itself was capable of renewal,” he said. He then went on to say that Fidesz won’t catch up to Tisza anytime soon, but it could increase its support from 20 percent to around 30 percent—a level that matches Viktor Orbán’s personal popularity. And if Fidesz wants to increase its support, it clearly needs Orbán.

Endre Hann, director of Medián Public Opinion and Market Research Institute—whom Viktor Orbán called “the greatest comedian” after his research predicted a two-thirds victory for Tisza, and against whom the entire Fidesz propaganda machine subsequently launched a smear campaign—reacted to Mráz’s interview in a social media post, saying: “In today's interview, Ágoston Sámuel Mráz publicly admitted that he had lied.”