ECFR: More than half of Hungarians reluctant to quit Russian energy

Hungarian voters primarily expect Péter Magyar to resolve the domestic political situation; they are divided on the issue of Ukraine, and their willingness to reduce the country's dependence on Russian energy is declining, according to the latest public opinion poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The ECFR conducted the survey among Hungarians a week after the April 12 parliamentary elections. Based on the results, researchers identified six reasons why Hungary may face difficult decisions in the coming period.

The first such factor is that the Tisza Party’s victory was driven more by a desire for change than by a specific political program, which is likely to create considerable uncertainty for the new government. When Tisza supporters were asked to explain in their own words why they voted for the party, 67 percent of respondents cited a desire for systemic change or anti-Fidesz sentiment, while only 15 percent were motivated by the party’s vision for the future or the appeal of Péter Magyar’s leadership skills. In addition, half of the Tisza camp considers dissatisfaction with the Fidesz government to be the primary reason for the election victory, and only 21 percent cited the Tisza program and its positive attributes.

They expect Péter Magyar to carry out reforms in domestic policy, rather than changes in foreign policy. When asked about the most important problems in Hungary, respondents listed the cost of living, the condition of public services, corruption and governance, as well as economic growth and job creation among their top priorities.

In the run-up to the election, two-thirds of Tisza voters were in favour of weaning Hungary off Russian energy sources, while 23 percent opposed it. Now, only 48 percent support decoupling, while 38 percent are opposed to it.

However, more than half of those surveyed oppose halting purchases of Russian energy sources.

Only 15 percent of those surveyed consider relations with the European Union a priority, but 79 percent expect the new government to improve Hungary’s relations with Brussels. Nearly as many are confident that Hungary will be able to access the frozen EU funds. Seventy-three percent of respondents continue to support Hungary’s EU membership. Forty-three percent would welcome closer cooperation with European partners, while 22 percent prefer a balancing act between the West, Russia, and China.

According to the survey, however, Hungarians are divided on the subject of Ukraine. Sixty-four percent of respondents believe it is more likely that with the new government taking office, Hungarian-Ukrainian relations will improve over the next year. The majority of respondents expect Hungary to approve EU aid to Ukraine, but 54 percent oppose the new Hungarian government lifting the blocking of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations.

Although Péter Magyar is considered a right-wing politician, many of his supporters favour a progressive government agenda, according to the research. A majority of Tisza voters and the Hungarian public support the new government’s climate policy, which may encourage the incoming Magyar government to treat renewable energy as a tool for reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels from the east. Forty-nine percent of the Hungarian population also supports the new government taking action to protect LGBTQ rights.