Anyone can buy a satellite image like the one Orbán used to prove he is right about the Friendship pipeline

On Monday, Viktor Orbán published high-resolution satellite images which, according to the Hungarian Prime Minister, refute Ukraine's claims about the Friendship pipeline. He says the images show that the oil pipeline has not been damaged. But how difficult is it to obtain such images nowadays, and can two satellite images really put an end to a dispute like this?

Many might think that only the secret services of superpowers have access to photos of this quality, but the reality is that there is a thriving commercial market for satellite images. Although in the spring of 2025, the US government restricted free access to images of Ukraine, paid services continue to be available.

There are several giant companies competing with each other on the market. Maxar Technologies, for example, produces sharp images in which even individual car models can be identified, while Planet Labs photographs the entire Earth every day with several hundred small satellites. And if American companies were to make things difficult, there is always European Airbus or Finnish ICEYE – with the latter's radar technology even able to see through clouds, darkness and smoke.

Purchasing such an image is pocket change for a state. A fresh, unique order costs a few thousand dollars, while archived images are available for a few hundred dollars. Telex asked the Hungarian government's Information Center how they obtained the images, whether they purchased them from a commercial company, and if so, from which one. They have not yet responded.

The images published by the Hungarian Prime Minister clearly feature oil reservoirs and fences, which means a resolution of approximately 30-50 cm/pixels. This is a classic optical image. According to experts interviewed by Telex on condition of anonymity, if an actual professional analysis had been carried out, modern satellite infrared (SWIR) sensors could have been used to see through the thick smoke and into the centre of the fire.

It is important to note that these commercial companies do not only sell raw photos, but comprehensive analyses, known as "intelligence" services as well. According to experts, however, the material published by Viktor Orbán appears to be little more than an "attachment." It lacks the details that would be included in a genuine intelligence report. The biggest question, however, is: do these images really prove that the pipeline is operational?

The short answer is: no.

This is because satellite images cannot see beneath the surface. Even if a building appears intact from the outside, the shock wave from a nearby explosion may have damaged the electrical controls or the software control of the pumps. The photo does not show the condition of the pipes underground. If the pipe has a hairline crack, the enormous pressure generated when restarting operations could lead to an environmental disaster. Pumping requires a lot of energy, so even if the facility is intact, but the more distant substations are damaged, it will not be able to operate.

In short, a satellite image is like a photo of a car. We can see that it has no scratches, but we cannot tell whether the engine will start or whether there is gasoline in it.

We also asked the Government Information Center on what basis the Prime Minister believes that these images prove his point. We will update our article as soon as we receive a response.

They turned the pipeline into a campaign topic

It was at the end of January that Russia carried out an attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline, causing it damage. According to the Ukrainian side, the attack had serious technical consequences and repairs will take a long time.

The Hungarian government, however, insists that the problem has already been fixed and that oil deliveries have been halted due to a political decision by Ukraine.

Orbán even wrote an open letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about this, and claims that he has not yet received a response, except that the Ukrainians summoned the chargé d'affaires of the Hungarian embassy twice. According to Orbán, "they said all sorts of things" to him. Due to the lack of oil deliveries, the Hungarian side is not supplying diesel oil to Ukraine, and is blocking the release of an EU loan, while also threatening to restrict electricity exports to the country. On Friday, Viktor Orbán announced that a joint Investigation Committee on the Friendship pipeline would be set up with the Slovaks.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó also spoke about the satellite images mentioned by Orbán. He said that these clearly show that “President Zelensky is lying, as the satellite images unmistakably show that there is no technical or engineering reason for the blockage of the Friendship oil pipeline.”

According to Szijjártó, in this situation, when maritime oil transport has become uncertain due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "blocking a well-functioning land-based pipeline oil transport route is an attack on Hungary."

Szijjártó went so far as to say that "the Tisza Party is Zelensky's accomplice," and then went on to say that "the Brussels-Berlin-Kyiv axis made these decisions to help the opposition Tisza Party, so that a pro-Ukraine government could be formed in Hungary."

At one of the stops on his tour of the country on Saturday, Péter Magyar, Tisza’s leader responded to János Lázár's comment that he should call Zelensky about the Druzhba oil pipeline. "Since no one knows exactly what the reality is with the Druzhba pipeline, I would like to make an offer to the outgoing Prime Minister. If Orbán is too scared to go alone, I will go with him. Let's take a look at the Druzhba oil pipeline, let's ask the Ukrainians to show us where it was damaged, how we can help rebuild it, and when it can start transporting oil to Hungary again at the earliest, Magyar said.