Inflation in Hungary remained at 4.3 percent in October

In October 2025, consumer prices were on average 4.3 percent higher in Hungary than a year earlier, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) reported on Tuesday. Compared to September, on average, prices remained unchanged, with the annual inflation remaining at 4.3 percent, as in August.

Despite the stagnant inflation rate, the annual indicator is still not consistent with the central bank's 3 percent price stability target, so according to Péter Virovácz, senior analyst at ING, despite the fact that the Hungarian economy has been stagnating for three years now and the government has introduced a number of measures to curb inflation, Hungary is still struggling with price stability difficulties. The overall picture is also not helped by the fact that annual core inflation has risen above 4 percent again, to 4.2 percent to be precise.

The price of groceries rose by 3.9 percent over 12 months compared to October 2024 (1.7 percent excluding catering services), and looks like this:

• eggs: 20.2 %
• chocolate and cocoa: 16.1%
• coffee: 14.8 %
• confectionery products: 12.8 %
• fruit and vegetable juices: 9.0 %
• meals at school cafeterias: 7.7 %
• non-alcoholic soft drinks: 7.2 %
• bakery products: 6.5%, cooking oil: 5.3 %
• poultry meat: 3.1 %

There were other foods whose prices fell, such as margarine (27.8 percent), flour (14.8 percent), dairy products (10.2 percent), milk (8.9 percent), sugar (8.8 percent), bologna and sausage (6.6 percent), and pork (5.8 percent).

It is unknown how much the margin freeze (introduced by the Hungarian government in March 2025) has curbed inflation, but in September, the Ministry of National Economy announced that the margin cap had reduced August's inflation (which was also 4.3 percent on an annual basis) by 1.6 percent. Bank analysts also agree that the margin freeze is keeping inflation down, which also means that once the measure is lifted, prices will suddenly increase. However, the government has no plans to phase it out for the time being. In fact, it recently extended it and is putting pressure on food processing companies in other ways to prevent them from raising their prices.

According to the National Retailers' Association, (OKSZ) the latest inflation figures once again indicate that there is no need for margin restrictions. "However, the harmful effects of the measure are becoming increasingly apparent, with more and more towns becoming retail deserts," the OKSZ writes, adding that the margin freeze is also increasing the share of foreign content, thus damaging the market position of Hungarian food producers and retailers alike.

Since the measure fails to address the factors driving inflation – such as rising supplier prices and structural problems in supply chains – but merely sweeps them under the rug, inflation will reappear next spring when the measure is phased out.

Hungarian households had to pay 10.7 percent more on average for their energy consumption than a year ago, with piped gas up by 23.7 percent and electricity up by 2.1 percent. The price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 7.5 percent.

Services went up 6.7 percent, with vacation services up 13.2 percent, vehicle repair and maintenance up 10.1 percent, healthcare services up 9.7 percent, personal care services up 9.4 percent, home repair, maintenance and rent have all increased by 9 percent, while sports and museum tickets were 8.4 percent higher compared to the prices a year ago. The price of durable consumer goods rose by 2.4 percent. According to the report, the price of motor fuels fell by 2.2 percent, while the cost of pharmaceuticals and medical products rose by 5.9 percent.

In his commentary on the inflation data, Péter Virovácz writes that inflation expectations remain high, "which makes it difficult for the central bank (and the economy) to reach the 3 percent inflation target in the short term." According to ING's chief analyst, the inflation rate may move downward in the coming months due to the base effect. "Exactly where it will stand at the end of the year will largely depend on the impact of the expansion of the margin freeze, but we can probably expect to see a figure well below 4 percent," with inflation expected to be 4.4-4.5 percent for the year overall.