Orbán's challenge: How to talk about 1956 after his political director's scandal?

Fidesz is facing the most difficult commemoration on 23 October in its history on Wednesday. Viktor Orbán is not in an easy position. He will have to stand before the audience on the national holiday, shortly after his political director called into question the very essence of the 1956 revolution when suggesting that the struggle of the freedom fighters of 1956 was irresponsible and pointless. Speaking to the the pro-government Mandiner, Orbán Balázs said that "It is precisely because of '56 that we probably would not have done what President Zelensky did 2,5 years ago, because it is irresponsible, because it's clear that he led his country into a war of defence."

Not only do these sentences marginalize the way we have come to think about 1956, but they even contradict Viktor Orbán's previous speeches given on 23 October.

In 2008, for example, the Prime Minister argued for holding commemorations of the events of 1956 by saying that during that time the Hungarian people had shown that they were capable of rebelling against tyranny. It is also worth recalling his speech from 2010, in which he referred to Fidesz's two-thirds victory in the elections that year as the conclusion of the '56 revolution. Balázs Orbán's comments also run counter to Fidesz's policy of remembrance, which seeks to make the freedom fighters, the "pesti srácok" (the boys from Pest – TN) the central figures of the 1956 events.

So the Prime Minister has got his job cut out for him, because what can be said about 1956 against such a backdrop? 1956 has been described as many things in Orbán’s speeches: a choice between East and West, an uprising against tyranny, a calm regime change, the rebirth of the nation, and a revolt against an empire – depending on what his political interests at the time were dictating. The fact that Balázs Orbán's statements did not turn into a second clemency scandal also shows that the authorities are able to spin the memory of 1956 as they please, whilst the Hungarian society looks on.

1956 has been used for political purposes before

In an attempt to justify his policies, for some time now, Orbán has been using 1956 as an excuse to scourge the West and the European Union alike. This hasn't always been the case though.

In 2007, he interpreted '56 as a battle between East and West, when Hungarians sided with the West, which he saw as a guiding principle for the future. At the time, he regarded Vladimir Putin's regime as the embodiment of the very force against which the Hungarians rebelled in 1956.

"The politics of the East does not tolerate autonomy, it doesn't tolerate independence and it doesn't tolerate freedom. It abolishes the lines of defense that protect the individuals' independent life. It makes us destitute, it impoverishes us, it makes us vulnerable, and if necessary, it intimidates us. It shackles you to a life dependent on those in power," Orbán said at the time.

From 2013 onwards, however, the European Union has featured increasingly as an oppressive power in his speeches given during commemorations about '56. The fact that Hungary joined the EU of its own free will, as a result of a referendum, did not prevent him from making this point. His speech at the revolution's anniversary in 2013 was the first time when he drew clear parallels between the Hungarian opposition, certain EU politicians and those who crushed the 1956 revolution. "We are not burying our heads in the sand. We can see them organising, plotting, fabricating and conspiring with foreigners again," he said.

As time has gone on, Orbán has spoken more and more openly about how the EU is not much better than the Soviet Union, which crushed the 1956 revolution and kept Hungary under oppression for decades. "Indeed, history sometimes repeats itself. Fortunately, what was a tragedy the first time is at best a farce the second time. Luckily, Brussels is not Moscow. Moscow was a tragedy, Brussels is just a contemporary parody gone wrong. Back in the day we were forced to dance to Moscow's tune. Even though Brussels might whistle, we will dance the way we want to. And if we don't want to, we don't dance. But the lecturing from the comrades is still the same, only now it's called the conditionality mechanism," he said, for example, in his speech on 23 October last year.

Perhaps it was in his 2021 speech that the EU=USSR analogy was fully realised. By then, there was no trace of the pre-2010 pro-West and pro-Europe attitude. "We have a sense of déjà vu, where an atmosphere of the Brezhnev-doctrine pervades Europe. It's about time Brussels understood that even the communists couldn't cope with us. We are the grain of sand in the engine, the stick in the spokes, the splinter under the nail," he said at the time.

Regardless of this, Orbán has always regarded 1956 as a glorious chapter in Hungarian history, and has never once spoken of the revolution as pointless.

In 2022, more than half a year after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Orbán spinned the message of 1956 one more time. He could have said: "The Hungarians were right in 1956 when they rebelled against the Soviet Union". Instead, in his speech in Zalaegerszeg, he blamed the West for the downfall of the revolution. “Hundreds of thousands of Hungarians took part in the revolution, the Soviets were confused, and if the West had not betrayed us – for the second time since 1945 – we could have succeeded.”

It was not by chance that Orbán spoke of the betrayal of the revolution, even if there is little historical basis for this interpretation. If he had mentioned Ukraine, he would also have had to explain why Hungary hadn't condemned Russian aggression more strongly. All this came just a few days after Orbán said on Kossuth Rádió that in 1956, the Hungarians were not trying to defeat the Soviet army, but were trying to coerce a ceasefire and peace negotiations. At the time, his interest lay in justifying the Hungarian government's so-called pro-peace policy with the memory of 1956.

Can we expect a more subdued Orbán speech this year?

By now it is clear that the Prime Minister is sticking with Balázs Orbán, and there will be no serious consequences to his mistake. Orbán has decided to keep his political director despite the fact that this will provide his opponents with a platform for attacks for a long time to come, especially on and around 23 October. It is likely that – although the party has provided several explanations since then – some Fidesz supporters are also expecting him to somehow correct Balázs Orbán's highly controversial statements in his speech at the commemoration.

At the recent plenary session of the European Parliament, Orbán deflected criticism of the Hungarian government's pro-Russian stance by resorting to counter-attack. He argued that no parallels can be drawn between 1956 and the war in Ukraine, because the very idea is an insult to the memory of the freedom fighters. It did not matter that Balázs Orbán had done just that, or that he himself had previously not shied away from comparing Imre Nagy, who was executed after 1956, to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

But the state commemoration is a different terrain. It seems that the government doesn't want to take any risks this 23 October and will try to keep this year's commemoration low-key. At least that is what the choice of venue and the way the government is structuring the commemoration suggest. It wouldn't have been out of place for the Prime Minister to mark the anniversary of the events of 1956 in the country, as he has done in recent years, but he will instead be speaking at the open-air stage in Buda's Millenáris Park. This way, he cannot be accused of not daring to stand up in front of the public in Budapest, but there is also no risk of counter-protesters turning up at the venue, as he will be speaking mainly to firefighters and employees of the water safety authorities who were involved in the recent flood defence efforts. Moreover, the government is combining the public commemoration with a family day for those invited, although this is not being widely publicised.

So it seems that this year Fidesz does not want to participate in the mobilisation contest, especially after this most recent scandal. The results would be doubtful anyway, as it was clear on 15 March this year that Fidesz no longer dominates the streets. Viktor Orbán's speech failed to draw a big enough crowd to fill Múzeum Körút, while Péter Magyar's very first event on the same day drew a crowd the size of which has rarely been seen at opposition rallies in recent years. It is also unusual that the pro-government Magyar Nemzet is recruiting attendees for the state commemoration in a dedicated article. It is also evident that Fidesz is making no attempt to reclaim the symbol of 1956, the flag with the hole in it, which, as a result of Balázs Orbán's words, was temporarily appropriated by the Tisza Party, which has been using decidedly national messages in its political activities.

Under these circumstances, it is possible that Orbán will deliver a more restrained speech than usual, focusing on the historical significance of 1956 and on praising the freedom fighters, rather than on current political messaging. There have been examples of this before. After Fidesz lost Budapest in the 2019 municipal elections and was also defeated in several other important cities, Orbán spoke in front of a select audience at the Franz Liszt Music Academy, avoiding current affairs and grand explanations of the world around us.