We consider a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia a realistic scenario – Balázs Orbán

The Hungarian government considers a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia to be a realistic scenario, Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister's Political Director (no relation to Viktor Orbán) told Portfolio in an interview.

According to Balázs Orbán, the strategy regarding the war (in Ukraine – TN) should have been re-examined in Brussels after the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive last summer, but the Hungarian position on this was rejected. He says it is "more clear than ever" that Europe's strategy is making the spreading of the war increasingly likely. "At the same time, how long Ukraine's capabilities will be sufficient to withstand Russia's superior forces is extremely uncertain," he added.

"I think a realistic assessment of the situation is as follows: a million people have been killed or injured in the war so far, millions have fled the country, half a country is in ruins after being bombed out, and the Russians are occupying more territory than they did before '22. If this is success, then what counts as failure?"

– the Hungarian Prime Minister's Political Director said, adding that it was questionable how much and for how much longer the West was willing to support Ukraine.

“We are convinced that time is on Russia's side, as they have switched their economy into war mode, so they are able to either keep up or escalate the intensity of this conflict for many years.”

This is somewhat contradicted by Viktor Orbán's statement to a Czech online TV channel at the end of May: 'I am convinced that it's a challenge for the Russians to even defeat the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the idea that the Russians would attack NATO or any NATO member state is not a reasonable assumption. NATO is a thousand times stronger than Ukraine. Nobody dares attack NATO."

Balázs Orbán described Western Europe moving away from Russian energy sources faster than expected as a strategic mistake, saying it increased the continent's vulnerability. "In this situation, Europe's interest would be to be able to import from as many places as possible in order to create a competitive environment for importers. From this point of view, cutting oneself off from the closest energy source, which will probably always be among the most competitively priced, is incomprehensible," he said.

On the Hungarian government's strategy, he said there was no question about the country being part of European cooperation and NATO, but neither of these imply that a country cannot have an independent foreign policy.

“Today we see that several new economic powerhouses have emerged in the East. And because of Hungary's geographical location, the Balkans, the Middle East, and Central Asia are of strategic importance for us. We do not want to give up these partnerships. We see them as a way of paving the way for a new, more prosperous phase of the Hungarian economy. And we are already seeing concrete results of this.”

– he said. As examples he mentioned Hungary’ strategic relations with Turkey, the financial and investment cooperation with Arab countries and the Chinese President's recent visit to Budapest.

"There could be a number of changes in the international political space this year, which would provide us with more room for manoeuvre. So we are certainly optimistic. We expect that after the elections, and once the war next door is successfully brought to an end, we will be able to pursue our policy in a much less hostile international environment in the following two years", added Balázs Orbán.